The government's only hope is that in the interview with Joe Biden on Tuesday the 26th, the leniency of the US president will allow it to renegotiate the terms agreed to with Georgieva or at least obtain a waiver for the diversion in the next review.Kristalina Georgieva told Silvina Batakis that the IMF needs Argentina to succeed with the plan signed by former minister Mr. MaGoo.But the actions undertaken within the country by the economic and political sectors in tune with the Monetary Fund, point in the opposite direction: the Rural Society carried out a commercialization lockout and the Changing leadership proclaims that it will deny water and salt to President Alberto Fernández and predicts his resignation.Argentina thus lives new old stories.In his 1958 book Los vendepatrias, Juan D. Perón wrote that the "great international capitalist consortium Bunge & Born has exploited the Argentine countryside for fifty years, paying ridiculous prices and has made enormous profits from the commercialization of the work and production of others." ."When Bunge & Born marketed, wheat was paid to Argentine farmers six pesos per quintal; since the government took it over, the farmers charged sixty pesos for the same thing.""Bunge & Born, which is an international capitalist consortium, is only interested in its own profits and (...) makes us pay little for what we sell and a lot for what we buy through them, since they are importers and exporters "."Since Bunge & Born buys and sells itself, through malicious maneuvering of its own documentation and by simulating prices, it violates the foreign exchange law and half of the foreign exchange product of its operations resides abroad" ."The dictatorship [of 1955] has once again given Bunge & Born its former preponderance, probably due to foreign imposition and the consequence has not been long in coming: a tremendous inflation has been unleashed in the country."In 1989, Menem handed over the management of the economy to Bunge & Born, and his Secretary of Culture, Julio Bárbaro, went so far as to describe what Perón called the great international capitalist consortium as if it were a "productive national business community", confronted with "the companies foreigners and the colonial vision of carnal relations" (sic).The oligarchic restoration.In 1977, Rodolfo Walsh wrote in his Open Letter to the Military Junta that "an increase of 722% in the prices of animal production in 1976 defines the magnitude of the oligarchic restoration undertaken by Martínez de Hoz in accordance with the creed of the Sociedad Rural exposed by its president, Celedonio Pereda: Full of amazement that certain small but active groups continue to insist that food should be cheap.He also said that "the economic policy of that Board, dictated by the International Monetary Fund (...), only recognizes as beneficiaries the old ranching oligarchy, the new speculative oligarchy and a select group of international monopolies."It continues to be the best portrait of the root conflict between the ruling classes and popular interests.But almost half a century of entropy later, the government headed by the president of the Justicialist Party no longer insists that food be cheap, but rather that it at least orbit below the stratosphere where it is only possible to see it with the help of the James Webb telescope.In October 1975, the Rural Society chaired by Pereda launched a so-called "national agrarian strike" that lasted for a fortnight and caused food shortages.Pereda also founded the Permanent Assembly of Entrepreneurial Union Entities (Apege), precursor of the current AEA, which in February 1976 carried out a national lockout against "disintegration and chaos" and the excessive influence of trade unionism, which leads to Marxism.Such measures led to the coup of March 24, 1976. Pereda's second in the Rural, Jorge Zorreguieta, took over as Undersecretary of Agriculture.These old stories were updated last week, when the Rural Society and its Liaison Board ordered a grain and meat marketing lockout, with an extravagant rationale: the lack of diesel (which in almost the entire country had already been resolved and, among other reasons, it motivated the ejection of the CEO of YPF, Sergio Affronti) and the withholdings (which Batakis announced would not be increased).Elbio Laucirica, vice president of Coninagro, explained the background, mentioning among his motivations the "demand for justice, corruption, improving education, health, security."That is, political issues.The hen of devaluation.The real purpose is to force a devaluation that increases the profits of exporters and, if it is essential to achieve it, the fall of the government before the constitutional term, as happened in 1989 and 2001. In both cases, political chaos was followed by uncontrolled devaluation and gigantic income transfers.Then, as now, Argentina had closed access to credit in dollars, after a hasty process of flight by local economic groups and transnational companies, financed by loans from the IMF.Beyond internal lines, the Shifting opposition has a basic commonality:- Luis Juez announced during the election campaign that the opposition would reject any government project to "not let them govern."- Maurizio Macrì stated on May 30, at a lunch with the Procaz leadership, that "with the governments of Alberto Fernández and Axel Kicillof we have nothing to negotiate."In his aversion to what he calls populism, Macrì went back first to 1945 and then to 1916, repudiating Perón and Yrigoyen.- Rodríguez Larreta postulated on June 29 from Israel the need for a broad agreement to lower inflation, which includes everyone except Kirchnerism.- Patricia Bullrich said on July 5 that the position of Together for Change should be not to approve any law, block everything that can: "We don't have to give them any tools."- Elisa Carrió predicted on July 14 the resignation "in these days" of Alberto Fernández."An entire government and Peronism itself is falling."Lower the deficit by abolishing taxes?The link between the cases pointed out by Perón and Walsh is the current vice president of the Rural Society, and brand new president of the Inter-American Council of Commerce and Production (Cicyp), Marcos Jorge Celedonio Pereda Born, son of that Celedonio Pereda from 1977 and nephew of Jorge and Juan Born.His mother was Matilde Born Frías, who died in 2011.The sector is capable of demanding the reduction of the fiscal deficit and at the same time the elimination of withholdings on the sale of soybeans, which provide one of the largest revenues to the treasury, with a redistributive effect.He claims that the adjustment must be done by politics, a gimmicky slogan that does not take into account the magnitudes involved.Along the same lines is a bill presented by 19 deputies from the changing opposition (among others, Laura Rodríguez Machado, Martín Tetaz, Rogelio Frigerio grandson, Fernando Iglesias) and their far-right adherents (Javier Milei and Victoria Villarruel), which would repeal the personal property tax, as progressive as withholdings.It cannot attract attention then that Pereda Born has been the main contributor to María Eugenia Vidal's campaign in 2019, with more than 5.6 million pesos, between personal donations and her companies.He reached the vice presidency of the Rural Society on a list headed by Nicolás Pino and who had the support of the former Macrì minister, Luis Miguel Etchevehere, also a former president of the Rural.Along with them, the main promoter of the lockout was Jorge Chemes, president of the Rural Confederations (CRA) and former deputy Cambiante.In 2009, Chemes harangued that, "as in war, you have to kill those in the front row. You have to sweep away the majority, the filth. (...) You have to cut off the Kirchners' hands."Ricardo Buryaile, also former Macrì Minister of Agriculture and former CRA vice president, told Jorge Fontevecchia on Thursday the 14th that "the confrontation with the countryside is ideological, Kirchnerism needs someone to defeat."In 2008, when Resolution 125 on mobile withholdings drafted by Martín Lousteau was being discussed, Buryaile said that if Congress ratified it, it should be dissolved.He later claimed that it had been taken out of context."I meant that if Congress acts as a government clerk, the best thing would be to close it," he thought he clarified.Today as three quarters of a century ago, democracy continues to be the government of the democratic.In March of this year, when he sent the agreement with the Monetary Fund to Congress, Mr. MaGoo argued that if it was not approved, the official titles would sink and the country risk would fly.To meet the goals of the second review of the IMF, the former minister suspended all payments from the public administration, obtained loans for 500 million dollars from the banks of the Nation and the province of Buenos Aires, and asked for an advance of 1,500 million dollars for withholdings on future sales to the Chamber of the Oil Industry (Ciara)."You leave the family without eating for five days and then show that your refrigerator is not empty, but they are all starving," compares a former senior official from the Ministry of Economy.Despite this, all the catastrophes that threatened if there was no agreement with the Fund have occurred: the exchange rate gap exceeds 130%, with the parallel dollar above 300 pesos, Argentine bonds are trading below 20% and the country risk does not fall below 2,700 points.The resignation that under the pretext of a speech by Cristina Mr. MaGoo tweeted on the afternoon of Friday, July 1, was ready days in advance, since the INDEC confirmed that inflation was rising again after two months of gentle decline.The way he surprised the President, without giving him time to choose who would succeed him and organize the transition, made matters worse.Miguel Pesce, Daniel Scioli and Augusto Costa, commissioned for the task by the Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof, faced the specter of shortages in successive meetings with importers, producers, marketers and price makers, with whom they negotiated access to the official exchange market for normal supply to the gondolas.An offshore island within the country.Pesce also got Adrián Cosentino removed from the National Securities Commission.When he was Minister of Economy, Axel opened the door for him to leave Cristina's cabinet, Alfonso de Prat Gay recruited him as an adviser when Macrì governed, and Guillermo Nielsen reinserted him in Alberto's government.Mr. MaGoo was opposed to any progress made by the president of the Central Bank on the operations of the non-bank financial sector.It is controlled by three or four large brokerage houses, the treasury of two or three banks and fifteen large holders of pesos that bid to send the dollar into the stratosphere, playing Cash with Liqui, the stock dollar, the cable dollar.Pesce has already had several meetings with Cosentino's successor, Sebastián Negri, son of a FURN militant in La Plata, where Cristina and Néstor Kirchner also reviewed.Together with Cosentino, he skidded Mónica Erpen, the Trojan mare of Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA), who was Cosentino's trusted person at the CNV.When they appointed her, the business newspaper El Cronista ironically commented that it was like putting Marcelo Tinelli as referee in a San Lorenzo match.If the bank and equity regulators requested detailed information on who carried out those operations, BYMA provided the names of the brokers but did not identify the clients who are the final beneficiaries of the operations.The CCL continued to rise despite these changes, and market spokesmen attributed it to the departure of Cosentino, which "understood them" (sic).For Pesce's advance on this inadmissible offshore island within the Argentine financial system to take effect, the novelty should also be felt on the line, where they continue: Matías Isasa, the eternal partner of Cosentino;Martín Breilinger, another graduate of the National University of La Plata whom Mr. MaGoo appointed as director.He was responsible for the authorization of the Caja de Valores (CVSA) as issuer of Cedears of ETFs (funds of funds).This certificate is a local instrument that serves to escape, since it represents the participation of foreign shares or ETFs that are listed on foreign markets.Its effects for this moment of devaluation pressure and rampant inflation are not highly recommended.Allowing Caja de Valores to act as an issuer is incompatible with its primary functions.Even the macristas ruled it out, while the board chaired by Cosentino decided on it a year ago, without it being made public, because it came out as an internal resolution and was not published on the CNV website.Rodolfo Iribarren continues as General Coordinator.This historical character of the line, he manages all the operational areas, especially the Market Management and keeps his people in key places.He is the nephew of José Anunciado Cirillo, one of the vice presidents of Boca Juniors during the Macrì administration and his agent when Sevel went public.He owned three shares of the Merval, and one was of Macrì.In 2017 he sold another for almost three million dollars.Cirillo was at odds with Ernesto Allaria, the then president of the Merval and after the merger with the Stock Exchange, also of BYMA.The solution that Macrì and Cirillo found was the appointment of Niky Caputo as deputy of the Merval, to celebrate peace.Debt crisis with stagflation.No one assumes that the goals of the next IMF review will be achieved.The declarations regarding compliance with the agreement and the importance of fiscal balance are feints to begin the dialogue in the best possible terms.But the government's only hope is that in the interview with Joe Biden on Tuesday the 26th, the indulgence of the US President will allow it to renegotiate the terms agreed to with Georgieva or at least obtain a waiver for the diversion in the next review.That is why Batakis will be part of Alberto Fernández's entourage.It is not impossible for them to succeed, because the world situation worsens every day and the fall of a medium-sized country like Argentina can start an uncontrollable domino.Georgieva herself wrote this week on the Fund's blog that global inflation is outpacing expectations and expanding beyond food and energy prices, forcing major central banks to announce further adjustment, necessary but that will affect recovery.At the end of this month, the IMF will project a further drop in forecast growth, not only this year, but also next, "with increasing risk of recession."Georgieva added that "a further disruption in the supply of natural gas to Europe could plunge many economies into recession and trigger a global energy crisis."And in an article published in the British newspaper The Guardian, super guru Nouriel Roubini described the coming crisis:- In the 1970s, there was stagflation, but debt levels were low.- After 2008, there was a debt crisis but low inflation, or even deflation, due to the credit crunch that paralyzed demand.- Today we face supply shocks with much higher levels of debt.This implies that we are heading towards a combination of 1970s-type stagflation and the 2008 debt crisis, ie "a stagflationary debt crisis."The worst is yet to come, but on July 3 the Washington Post reported that inflation and high fuel and food prices have tripled the waiting list at overnight shelters.The report was accompanied by a photograph of a family staying in her car.In Argentina, June inflation grew to 5.3% per month, with an interannual variation of 64%.For this month it is feared that it will be around 7%, with a disturbing approach to 100% per year.For the second consecutive month, food and non-alcoholic beverages were below the general index, with 4.6%.In the areas with the greatest increases, the State has intervention instruments that were not fully used: prepaid drugs and medicines require official authorization;the price of home services is decided by the State (and hence Mr. Magoo's tough battle with the Federicos);in fuels, YPF has the capacity to regulate the market;and the rest is benefited by programs with a fiscal cost such as Previaje or Now 12, which would allow compensation to be demanded.Everyone repeats that wages must beat inflation, but the trick of the magicians is not in the words they utter.To the 19.5 points that the salary of registered private workers lost during the macrismo, there is an additional drop of 4.4 points since the plague ended.And the picture is worse among the precarious and those who work in the State.Formal and unofficial government spokesmen point out that, unlike in Europe, the economy here is growing, showing 10.3% of last year.However, year-on-year growth has stalled and has gone in the opposite direction compared to last month in many areas, so it would be unwise to ignore Roubini's prediction.Would anyone dare to rule out that a pardon from the Fund is now obtained, but that the agreement is considered fallen at the same time that the 2023 electoral campaign begins, which according to Georgieva could be an even worse year than this?Except for the real estate revaluation, the Batakis announcements were nods to the markets.The cleavage between the market value of a property and its fiscal valuation (on which the tax is paid) is an ancient structural problem.In a few places it exceeds 30% of the market price, so that there is a good margin to increase collection, through the double route of the real estate tax, which is provincial, and personal property, which is federal.As the new valuation would only take effect next year, the improvement in tax revenues would not be immediate, but the annoyance of taxpayers, of the already hostile middle class, and of some governors who need those votes, yes.Some social movements arrived last week at the Plaza de Mayo, demanding the sanction of the so-called Universal Basic Salary, and within an exact month, on August 17, the CGT and the CTA will march in protest against inflation.José Luis Lingeri, Héctor Rodríguez and Gerardo Martínez (for many the real leadership of the CGT) anticipated it to Cristina when they visited her in the Senate.They also took care to inform President Alberto Fernández that she would not be against her government.The first to announce it was Pablo Moyano, but with a different speech, because he accused Batakis of continuing Mr. MaGoo, which seems premature.Hugo Yasky notified that the CTA will arrive at the march on August 17 "with mobilizations throughout the country, so that it becomes the beginning of the recovery of the street of the popular sectors. We wait for the call of the Minister of Economy but not idly while those who want a government of the rich for the rich are making day-to-day ordeal for the people".The debate about the plans was triggered by Cristina's speech in Avellaneda.The 200,000 with which she ended her presidency have increased sevenfold, with social consequences that are difficult to manage.The universality of the AUH, up to the age of 18, and her retirement, from 60/65, explain why Cristina retains a stronger core of adherence than any other political figure.But universalizing coverage between both extremes poses more complex problems than financing it.For example, a mother with three children earns almost 40,000 pesos a month.If there are also two Enhance plans in the family, the income is equal to the salary of a metal worker.The State has no way of knowing, because transfers are bankarized individually.Only Anses could reconstruct the history of the family group.In Vaca Muerta, the construction workers do not want to be registered, to continue charging the plans as if they did not have a job.One day before the mobilization in demand for the universal basic salary, the President received a group of leaders of social organizations.The reason was to take an interest in the denunciation of the raids on picnic areas and dining rooms of different organizations in Jujuy, as a response by Gerardo Morales to the presidential visit to Milagro Sala.Also present was the FdT deputy and director of the CCC, Juan Alderete, whose organization received several raids in Greater Buenos Aires, in which 50,000 dollars and 7 million pesos were seized.How Violeta Parra sings, "what will the Holy Father say, who lives in Rome, that they are already slaughtering his pigeons?"When the meeting concluded, Alberto Fernández made a laudatory reference to the so-called "Popular Economy".The coordinator of the Sala Milagro Front for Dignity and Work, Alejandro Coco Garfagnini, told him that he did not agree.That there was only one economy, to which all the workers should be integrated, and he reminded him of a proposal that he himself had formulated two years ago: a plan for the construction of a million houses, organizing the workers in cooperatives, as he did Néstor Kirchner at the beginning of his government, and organizations such as Túpac Amaru.-Ferraresi is doing a very good job -replied Fernandez."But he has a small budget and works with construction companies, not with cooperatives," Garfagnini said.The President said that he would analyze it with Ferraresi.Media misinformation established that what he calls "hard Kirchnerism" pressures the President for the Universal Basic Salary, and that Cristina entrusted Juliana Di Tullio to develop a project.Nothing further from reality.The universal basic salary scheme was presented by the former president of the University Federation (FUA), Itaí Hagman, an economist who is part of the small Patria Grande, the group of mediatic university professor Juan Grabois, for which he reached the Chamber of Deputies .Confusing that student body with Kirchnerism is not naive.Di Tullio is holding meetings with different people and organizations to develop an alternative project."Salary no, because that presupposes a job. Neither does Universal, because it would be a waste of resources, which would be paid to those who do not need it," Di Tullio said in response to a query for this note.What is sought is to define a complementary income, for families of four members who do not receive income equivalent to 44,500 pesos per month.That is the value of the Basic Food Basket, which defines the indigence line.On December 19, 2020, Grabois announced on Infoemba that he was contemplating a presidential candidacy."I'm thinking about it more and more. If I complain so much, I can..." he said in an interview with the changing journalist Ricardo Carpena.Now Politics Online maintains that he "dreams of being the Argentine Boric", as "emerging from a new leftist front".For now, in the march that he shared with the Polo Obrero, he began to practice the salute with a clenched fist, just as Eduardo Belliboni did.Whether it's Boric or Zelig, dreaming costs nothing."It's unfair competition"They crash drunk and seize marijuanaSanta Rosa-Toay line: increase the ticketStolen items recovered in Victorica"We need to heal Peronism"Cipolletti mobilized to demand justice for AgustinaLa Pampa, present in CatamarcaAcha takes advantage of the great flow of touristsLonquimay: ten homes will be delivered on ThursdayDo you want to receive alert notifications?La Arena is a daily morning newspaper, with distribution throughout the province of La Pampa and the center of the country.Contact us: info@laarena.com.ar© Owner: La Arena SA Director Leonardo Santesteban.Legal Address: Bartolomé Miter 339 Santa Rosa La Pampa.DNDA: 57049672. 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